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☆ Wall Street needs a new rhyme for 'sell in May and go away'
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Wall Street needs a new rhyme for "sell in May and go away." NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Advertisement"Sell in May and go away" is an old Wall Street adage that highlights the fact that the stock market's worst six-month stretch of performance is historically May through October. LPL Financial's chief technical strategist Adam Turnquist highlighted that since 1950, average returns for the S&P 500 during this six-month period are actually positive, not negative, at +1.7%.

Persons: Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, —, they're, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Ryan Detrick, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, Detrick Organizations: Service, Carson Group

☆ The US economy may end up caught in a dreaded period of stagflation. 2 experts outline the scenario, and how to keep your money safe
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This would force interest rates to stay higher for longer, putting pressure on US businesses and consumers. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA pair of economic reports has brought back a word no central banker ever wants to hear: stagflation. The difficult scenario occurs when inflation rises and growth stalls, a dangerous combination just experienced by the US economy.

Persons: stagflation, —, Thursday's, LPL, Jeffrey Roach, Mike Reynolds, Reynolds, Jamie Dimon, Roach, shouldn't Organizations: Service, Federal, yesterday's, Fed, Wall Street, Bank of America

☆ 2 experts outline a looming scenario where the US economy ends up caught in a dreaded period of stagflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

☆ Stock market today: Dow falls 375 points as traders brace for new inflation data after weak GDP
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Max Adams | Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Commentators pointed out that the data was still mostly strong but inflation is problematic. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementStocks fell on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 375 points as the market took in weaker-than-expected economic data. Savings rates are falling as sticky inflation puts greater pressure on the consumer," LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said.

Persons: —, Stocks, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Reserve, Barclays, Bank of America, PCE, Financial, Treasury, Meta, Microsoft, Google

☆ Stock market today: US indexes drop as 1st-quarter GDP growth comes in weaker than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Max Adams | Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks fell sharply Thursday as data showed the US economy grew much slower than expected to start 2024. The report also showed consumer prices rising in the quarter, complicating the Fed's rate-cut decision. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The market will be focused on personal consumption expenditures data, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which is due out on Friday. AdvertisementBond yields jumped as traders reacted to the economic data.

Persons: —, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Treasury, Service, Economic, Federal Reserve, LPL, Here's

☆ GDP growth slowed to a 1.6% rate in the first quarter, well below expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a 3.3% gain in the fourth quarter and below the 3% Wall Street estimate. Net exports subtracted 0.86 percentage point from the growth rate while consumer spending contributed 1.68 percentage points. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices rose at a 3.7% rate, both well above the Fed's 2% target. Income adjusted for taxes and inflation rose 1.1% for the period, down from 2%. Services spending increased 4%, its highest quarterly level since Q3 of 2021.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Gross, department's, Analysis, Commerce Department, Federal, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, LPL, Labor Department

☆ Why the Fed keeping rates higher for longer may not be such a bad thing
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

So the question is, are we going to have issues if rates remain higher for longer?" But financial markets, despite a recent 5.5% selloff for the S&P 500, have largely held up amid the higher-rate landscape. Higher rates can be a good signHistory tells differing stories about the consequences of a hawkish Fed, both for markets and the economy. Higher rates are generally a good thing so long as they're associated with growth. Futures market pricing implies a fed funds rate of 4.32% by December 2025, indicating a higher rate trajectory.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mandel Ngan, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Paul Volcker, David Kelly, Kelly, —, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial, Afp, Getty, LPL, Fed, Asset Management, Market, Cleveland Fed, European Union Locations: Washington , DC

☆ This investor, mentored by Peter Lynch, hasn't abandoned the 'Mag 7,' but is placing bets on these mid-caps
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

It was under the tutelage of legendary investor Peter Lynch that Sullivan developed the edge that has served him in his career. The numbers Today, Sullivan manages the Putnam Investments Core Equity Fund (PMYYX) , a multicap fund with $4.4 billion in assets that he started in 2010. "The numbers are good," Sullivan said. Ultimately, Sullivan said he's learned a lot from other investors, noting the good stock pickers have had "pretty eclectic" approaches that helped them outperform the market over time. "And I found the good fortune over the decades to be around pretty good stock pickers, pretty good money managers."

Persons: Gerard Sullivan, Peter Lynch, Sullivan, Lynch, hadn't, —, Arthur Yeager, PMYYX, Morningstar, It's, Yeager, Tesla, it's, that's, Rajesh Subramaniam, he's, I'm, That's Organizations: Fidelity, Columbia Business School, Magellan Fund, Putnam Investments, Equity, Pacific Gas & Electric, CMS Energy, Companies, Nvidia, FedEx Locations: Brooklyn, U.S, California, Michigan, Pinterest

☆ 'Volatility could explode': The S&P 500 is ripe for a correction as tensions in the Middle East flare and inflation sticks, experts warn. Here's what to do with your money.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Since late October last year, the S&P 500 has risen as much as 27% on strong economic data and excitement about AI. Losses were steepest last week when Iran fired missiles at Israel, exacerbating regional and global tensions. But as more labor market and inflation data has come out, investors now believe a cut is off the table until at least July. The S&P 500 has now dipped below its 20-day moving average, like it did last summer when yields rose above 4.35%. "The VIX, SKEW and Put/Call Ratio all indicate that sophisticated investors are on edge and volatility could explode to 52-week highs in the weeks ahead," Essaye said.

Persons: —, that's, Israel, James Demmert, Demmert, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Tom Essaye, Essaye, selloff, Solita, It's, Marcelli, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Brent, Research, Federal Reserve, LPL, MAs, UBS Americas, UBS Global Investment Locations: Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen

☆ Fed Chair Powell hints at no interest rate cut in May, keeping rates higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Interest rates are currently nestled at a 23-year high after the Fed launched an aggressive rate-hiking campaign two years ago. Inflation is down considerably from a four-decade peak reached in the summer of 2022, but recent inflation reports have shown persistent price pressures in services and housing. First rate cut in the summer? Wall Street already wasn’t betting on a rate cut in May, but some analysts are estimating the first cut could come some time in the summer. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Nomura are estimating a first rate cut in July.

Persons: Jerome Powell, “, Powell, ”, ” Quincy Krosby, don’t, hasn’t, Goldman Sachs, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Wilson, Fed, Congress, LPL, Atlanta Fed, Goldman, JPMorgan, Nomura, Bank of America, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, ” Locations: Wells Fargo, rebalance

☆ Stock futures tick higher as key March inflation report looms: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures inched higher Tuesday night as investors await key U.S. inflation data that will inform the Federal Reserve's path on rate policy. During Tuesday's regular trading, investors appeared to be in a holding pattern ahead of the March consumer price index report. The CPI report, which is set to release on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Fed funds futures trading data suggests a 42% likelihood that the central bank will hold steady on rates in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. In addition to the big inflation report on Wednesday, investors are also looking forward to the meeting minutes from the Fed's gathering last month.

Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CPI, Traders, LPL, Delta Air Lines Locations: New York City, Quincy

☆ Here are Tuesday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Netflix, Cisco, Alphabet, American Eagle & more
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Barclays downgrades American Express to equal weight from overweight Barclays sees "limited upside" on valuation for the stock. Compass Point downgrades Wells Fargo to neutral from buy Compass sees a more balanced risk/reward for shares of Wells Fargo. Bank of America reiterates Apple as buy Bank of America says its survey checks show App Store growth increasing. Bank of America upgrades Ally Financial to buy from neutral Bank of America said the bank holding company has "credit leverage." Bank of America initiates Frontier a buy Bank of America said the wirelines and cable telecom company has "meaningful potential to outperform."

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Raymond James, Goldman Sachs, Tesla, Goldman, Wells, Wells Fargo, Jefferies, MNDY, Rosenblatt, TeraWulf, TD Cowen, William Blair, Cowen, it's, Wolfe, KBW, DA Davidson, Davidson Organizations: Cisco, Colgate Energy, Resource, Bank of America, Infosys, of America, Barclays downgrades, Express, Barclays, BMO, Realty Trust, Compass, LPL, Nasdaq, Jefferies, RBC, Molson Coors, TAP, Distributors, Google, GE Aerospace, GE, General Electric Company, Apple, Netflix, Frontier Communications, JPMorgan, Eagle Outfitters, Technologies, Steel, Japan's Nippon Steel, Nippon Steel, GOP, Trump, Nvidia Locations: Midland , Texas, Wells Fargo, Freeport, Pittsburgh

☆ The market again has adjusted its view on rate cuts, with as few as two now expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.

Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL

☆ Disney proxy battle is about a lot more than just two board seats
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

As for the newsletter, in today's big story, we're breaking down Disney's big proxy fight . Activist investor Nelson Peltz's proxy fight against Disney for two seats on the company's board comes to a head at its annual shareholder meeting today. The total amount spent between Disney and its rivals wrangling votes is estimated to be at least $70 million, a record for a proxy fight. The statue of Walt Disney and Mickey Mouse at Cinderella Castle at the Magic Kingdom, at Walt Disney World, in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. 3 things in businessWin McNamee/Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIIn other newsAdvertisementWhat's happening todayThe Walt Disney Company's annual meeting will be held today.

Persons: —, Congrats, ya, Bob Iger, Nelson Peltz, Neilson Barnard, David A, Grogan, Nelson, Madeline Berg, BI's Peter Kafka, BI's Grace Eliza Goodwin, Walt Disney, Mickey Mouse, Joe Burbank, Rowe Price, Peltz's Trian, Neuberger Berman, Peltz, It's, Trian, they're, Stocks, Ray Dalio, it's, Quincy Krosby, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Alyssa Powell, Win McNamee, Chelsea Jia Feng, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, National, Getty, Disney, Magic, Walt Disney World, Orlando Sentinel, Tribune, Wall, BlackRock, Peltz's Trian Partners, California Public Employees, Financial Times, DuPont, Fed, JPMorgan, Bridgewater Associates, Astera Labs, Arm Holdings, LPL Financial, Apple, Nvidia, BI, Walt Locations: —, Virginia, Lake Buena Vista , Florida, China, Haiti's, New York, London

☆ Cooling inflation data means the Fed is in position to cut rate in June, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Cooling inflation data means the Fed is in position to cut rate in June, LPL's chief economist said. The PCE index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, decelerated to a 0.3% monthly increase, down from 0.5% in January. Services spending has slowed which indicates that growth in consumer spending will ease in the coming months, Jeffrey Roach said. AdvertisementThe latest inflation data has rolled in in line with expectations, and it's good news for those waiting on rate cuts. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index — which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — decelerated to a 0.3% monthly increase, down from 0.5% in January.

Persons: LPL's, Jeffrey Roach, — Organizations: Services, Service, Business

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors await fresh Fed guidance: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, August 8, 2022. Stock futures were little changed on Sunday, as Wall Street awaits guidance on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve this week. Futures tied to the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures hovered near the flatline, while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.2%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a 99% likelihood that the Fed will leave benchmark interest rates unchanged this week.

Persons: Quincy Krosby Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Fed, Fed telegraphs, Financial, chipmaker Micron Technology, FedEx Locations: New York

☆ Markets don't seem to care about the presidential election, but that could change soon
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

The election is not going to change that much either way," Roberts said. The market's moves through the year, though, could be important as they have often foretold outcomes in presidential races. Biden endorses taxing the rich whereas Trump pushed through corporate tax breaks while in office. Biden endorses taxing the rich whereas Trump pushed through corporate tax breaks while in office. The trend makes the market's moves in the months ahead potentially consequential for determining the election victor.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Doug Roberts, Roberts, there's, Trump, we'll, Joe Salmond, There's, Jerome Powell, Salmond, Jerome Powell's Organizations: Federal Reserve, House, Trump, Democratic, Channel Capital Research, Biden, Fed, Thornburg Investment Management, Global, Chase, White, AFP, Getty Locations: U.S, Washington, East, Russia, Wilmington , Delaware, Washington , DC

☆ Fed Chair Powell testifying to House on Wednesday. What investors are expecting
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, during a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on June 21, 2023. The past several months have seen a changing dynamic between financial markets and the Fed over the pace and timing of expected interest rate cuts this year. Markets have had to adjust their collective view from a highly accommodative central bank to one that's more cautious and deliberate. Central to the question of how the Fed acts from here on out is its view on inflation and how Powell expresses that. Powell will have to synthesize the recent trends carefully as he speaks first to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, then the Senate Banking Committee the day after.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Nathan Howard, Powell, Quincy Krosby, He's, it's, Joseph LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Sharp Organizations: Federal, Financial, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, Capitol Hill, Fed, LPL, CME Group, Banking Committee, Nikko Securities, Big Tech, Mizuho Securities, Market Locations: Washington ,

☆ Animal spirits are back in the market, fueling 2021-like speculative activity
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve's rate-cut signal in December triggered a furious rally to record highs, unleashing animal spirits that are fueling similar speculative activities from the depths of the pandemic. "The animal spirits are reviving," Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Global Research, said in a phone interview. "Animal spirits, they don't necessarily start with the biggest animals in the jungle," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said by phone. To be sure, others believe the market rally has been justified by the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and the contribution it's likely to make to future corporate profits. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the U.S. stock market is not in a speculative bubble based on his criteria.

Persons: Bitcoin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Cryptocurrency, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Quincy Krosby, Ray Dalio Organizations: BofA Global Research, Nasdaq, GameStop, Palo Alto Networks, Research, LPL Locations: Nigeria, Argentina, Snowflake, YOLO, . U.S, U.S

☆ S&P 500 futures rise slightly in overnight trading, Nvidia shares jump: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures edged up in overnight trading Wednesday, boosted by a jump in Nvidia shares as the chip giant posted record revenue and issued upbeat guidance. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1%. Nvidia shares popped more than 8% in after-hours trading after the chip company said total revenue rose a whopping 265% from a year ago, driven by its booming artificial intelligence business. AI enthusiasm has powered the jaw-dropping rally in Nvidia, along with other Big Tech names, over the past year. "Investors should know that the path of disinflation will likely be choppy, creating volatility in the rates market," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.

Persons: David Russell, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bears, Federal, LPL, Moderna, Builders, Live, Booking Holdings, Intuit Locations: U.S

☆ A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns concentration in tech stocks now exceeds levels seen just before the 2000 crash — and cautions that the sector's earnings are not keeping up
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-17 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

For example, the tech sector’s valuations are generally lower than they were then, though still elevated. One is that the fundamentals of the tech sector are detached from its price action. While the sector’s earnings have performed better than the rest of the market on average, earnings expectations have been rising faster than actual subsequent earnings performance. Many parallels between the dot-com bubble and today’s market have been called to light in recent weeks. Only time will tell if tech stocks are in a bubble that's due to burst.

Persons: Albert Edwards, “, ” Edwards, Edwards, Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Schulze, Adam Karr, ”, Quincy Krosby, Hartnett Organizations: Societe Generale, Nasdaq, Business, Generale, Bank of America, Orbis Investment Management, Artificial Intelligence, LPL Financial Locations: Japan

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors digest more earnings news: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on February 14, 2024 in New York City. Stock futures are were little changed on Thursday night as investors attempt to carry forward the broader market's strong momentum. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 27 points, or 0.07%. S&P futures inched up 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 37 points, or 0.2%. "Market expectations and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy projections have become closer aligned, alleviating a source of market volatility.

Persons: Dow, Adam Turnquist Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Materials, LPL, Federal Reserve Locations: New York City, U.S

Retail sales fell by 0.8% last month, far worse than expected, as consumers pulled back from their holiday spending and amid rising inflation and higher credit costs, the Census Bureau reported on Thursday. While overall retail trade sales declined, nonstore retailers were up 6.4 percent from last year. And consumers continued to spend on eating out, with food services and drinking places up 6.3% from a year ago. In January, retail sales rose by 2.34% from a year ago, according to the NRF/CNBC Retail Monitor powered by credit card tracking firm Affinity Solutions, but sales were down by 0.16% from December’s strong performance. “Notably, consumers are feeling strained by higher prices at the grocery store and beyond,” Patel said.

Persons: Jeffrey Roach, ”, Jonathan Silver, Piyush Patel, “, ” Patel, – Organizations: Census, Federal, LPL, CNBC Retail Monitor, Affinity Solutions, Affinity, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Wall Street learns an important lesson. Don’t fight the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

That sudden volatility highlights something that we often write about in Before the Bell: the major mismatch between policymaker and investor expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have repeatedly said they envision at most three rate cuts in 2024. Wall Street, meanwhile, has ignored those warnings and has opted to practice unflinching optimism instead. It’s not the first time they’ve had to learn an important lesson: Don’t fight the Fed. Bad for the markets, good for the Fed: Markets clearly don’t often take kindly to higher-for-longer interest rates, which can negatively impact earnings and stock prices.

Persons: New York CNN —, Jerome Powell, Dow, It’s, they’ve, Don’t, –, ”, Quincy Krosby, Arnim Holzer, José Torres, Chris Zaccarelli, doesn’t, ” Carl Icahn, Carl Icahn, Icahn, Chris Isidore, JetBlue’s, Samantha Delouya, Lyft, Erin Brewer Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Treasury, LPL, Fed, Interactive Brokers, CPI, Independent, Alliance, JetBlue, Spirit Airlines, Analysts Locations: New York, December’s, “, ”

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns current market conditions are worse than in 99.9% of history — typically meaning stocks are ripe for a 10%-30% sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Read previewThe S&P 500 surpassed 5,000 for the first time on Friday, riding a wave of investor optimism about the health of the US economy. It's represented by the red line in the chart below, while the S&P 500 is shown in blue. Here's a chart from a regression analysis by Bank of America showing the impact that valuations have on long-term stock market returns. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 23% over the past year.

Persons: —, John Hussman, Hussman, It's, Tom Lee, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Hussman, Bank of America

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